Why Bill Sali will not lose.

Idahoans have never been attracted by big DC political campaigns. It's just not in our DNA.

Typical national Dem or GOP campaign strategists do their third-party "media buys" for "typical Idahoans" from the East Coast in a milky-white homogeneous fashion of what they think Idaho is about, photoshoping the local-yokle's image onto stock footage (which is usually very beautiful) print and video.

They forget, I suppose, that in the summer, Idahoans have tans...some are even people of color (!)....and year-round, we have brains.

Why do I know they default to canned-campaigns of pain? 'Cause I saw it first hand a bunch of years ago when I had this crazy notion to run for US Congress and third party folks entered the campaign against my opponent. The candidate I ran against was beat up on unmercifully. I knew nothing about the commercials. Butch Otter prevailed and served us well in Congress and now as Governor. Idahoans didn't buy the attacks.

So, now the D's are at it, this time agaisnt Bill Sali. It's not gonna work on this side of the aisle, either.

The DCC has announced it may pour almost $350K into a Beat-Up-Bill media buy. This is ludicrous, even by BeltWay standards. Why?

First, many, many Idahoans love that certain "Helen Chenoweth/Bill Sali" quality in their Congressman. These folks are fighters and Idahoans who vote, completely enjoy that. No offense to Larry Grant but he didn't capture that spirit, even though he was a gentleman and refused the DC "stuff". He lost because he was Larry Grant...and because he had failed to bottle that "Chenoweth/Sali" scent...ultimately 'cause he didn't have it to bottle.

Now, Walt Minnick is running. Those who read this blog know that I respect the daylights out of Walt. He's no lefty-liberal "wacko" (as Limbaugh so disrespectfully puts it)...he's a good man, potentially swimming in some turbulent political white-water.

The problem is that the DCC (and the RCC, too) swoop into Iowa, er Ohio, ugh I mean Idaho (yeah that's it) and simply cause unbelievable (and unneeded) tension, disrespect and dishonor. They don't know how our rivers flow...

If Walt Minnick quietly allows/supports this type of national campaign (which I bet he'll be tempted to accept), he is a political dead man. His obituary will already have been written by Idahoans. (If he proves to have that "Chenoweth/Sali" scent, the race could STILL be up for grabs.)

Bill sali will not lose this race, because Idahohans will not let the national guys win.

On this one, I am an expert.

Den

Comments

[Dennis]

I laughed when I read your analysis of my politcal "punditry".

I guess you are correct! (I can kinda remember when I thought this other candidate for the same seat - during the 2000 Primary - was gonna beat Lt. Gov. Butch Otter...I sucked on that one, too. Google it and find out who...)
Den

[Tony]

WOW!!!! you were wrong about that one. Are you some local political pundit or something? If you are you suck.

[Bubblehead]

Disregard last re: no campaign spokesman; I just read in a Statesman article that Wayne Hoffman does do both jobs. When I've commuicated with Wayne, he's always been very conscientious about keeping his government role separate from the campaign, so I assume he'll be able to continue.

[Bubblehead]

Wow... a whole post about national organization media buys in a CD-1 election that doesn't once mention "Club For Growth". C'mon, Dennis, it was only two years ago; have you honestly forgotten already? Or were the CFG media buys OK because they were supporting your candidate?

I still hold that Congressman Sali, deep down, doesn't really have his heart in this race. It's July, and he doesn't even have a campaign spokesperson. (No, his Congressional spokesperson doesn't count -- can't use a government employee for the campaign without coming really close to legal and ethical lines.)