The REAL Reality of the Bradley Effect

In 1982 I was involved in the CA Governor's race, supporting George Deukmejian (then the AG) against LA's Mayor Tom Bradley.

The race looked like a "sure thing" for Bradley, having outdistanced the AG by almost 10 points in the polls....clear down to the end. 

But something happenend on the way to the "sure thing'...it didn't happen. As people entered the polls, they just simply didn't vote for the candidate they had given a thumbs-up to in front of their friends, family and most of all, polling companies.

It was highly implolite/impolitic to NOT publicly support Bradley, a black candidate.

So, why would ABC news waste time by running a news article a week ago about the Bradley Effect? Why now?

And why would Tom Brokaw and Charlie Rose distance themselves during this last week from a clear knowledge of (and implied support for) Barack Obama?

And, other than having the money to do so, would the Obama Campaign purchase a national "roadblock" (same long-playing commercial on a whole host of networks, all at the same time)?

Something is happening that may not be beneficial to Obama with two groups; the swing voters and the Bradley-ites.

Obama may in fact receive a Gore-like majority of votes nationwide, but it remains my call that the Bradley Effect will deprive him of the key edge votes in the states he needs most. With California's Prop 8 (No Gay Marriage) bringing out EVERY CHURCH CONGREGATION possible, California could quietly be lost to Obama from both the culture war AND the Bradley Effect.

Just as 1982 was not 1952 and the argument among political sophisticates, then, was that America was above the "race" issue; 1982 is removed from 2008 and the lingering suspicion may well remain that we are, in fact, not that removed....

Watch the on-going wierdness of the mainstream political talking fronts: McCain's chances of winning are real because Obama's chances of losing are directly connected to this awkward truth of American anonimity: people are only real when they make their final decision by voting.

Go ask ex-Governor Bradley...oh yeah, that won't work....

Den

Comments

[Dennis Mansfield]

Hence the double-sided attempt at satire and sorta-humor....

Guess I missed that one!
Den

[Adam Graham]

I don't know about that last sentence. Even if Bradley won, you couldn't ask him as he's deceased.